August 12, 2022

HEW: Europe’s Inflation in Jul-22

  • Over the past week, UK GDP confirmed the distorting effect of bank holiday changes as the economy more than unwound May’s rise. Surprisingly low US inflation may have eased some pressure on the BoE to “go big” again in September.
  • Next week is the busy one loaded with most of the UK’s top-tier data, where we are in line with the consensus CPI inflation rise in July. Final EA inflation data will also reveal the details behind its surprise strength, albeit with the “Big 4” already printed.

By Philip Rush (back from holiday on Monday)

August 05, 2022

HEW: BoE Blowing with Global Winds

  • Over the past week, the Bank of England followed through with a 50bps rate hike, matching the market and economic consensus, but failing to stay true to stated guidance on its reaction function. It will reassess things blowing in the global winds.
  • Next week is especially quiet on the data front until Friday’s GDP release, which will reveal the other side of May’s spurious strength amid the bank holiday distortions.

By Philip Rush

July 29, 2022

HEW: BoE Bracing Pressures

  • Over the past week, Euro area inflation again exceeded our above-consensus forecast, and the Fed resisted hawkish pressures to overdeliver. European consumer confidence, the Ifo, and CBI all fell further, with pricing expectations appearing to ease.
  • Next week is dominated by the Bank of England’s rate hike on Thursday, where we still expect it to hike by 25bps rather than raise the pace to 50bps. Unemployment in the euro area and final PMIs are other points of interest on the data side.

By Philip Rush