Archive

January 17, 2025
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HEW: Respite From Hawkish Pressures

  • Data releases skewed slightly softer this week, with UK inflation and GDP disappointing on statistical effects. US CPI news was marginal, yet the failure to exceed expectations drove dovish moves. Korea and Indonesia surprised by holding and cutting, respectively.
  • Next week’s policy focus is the BOJ, where expectations for a hike were raised by recent guidance. The flash PMIs and UK labour market data are our highlights on the economic data calendar.
  • Note: Smartkarma became our research portal in January, so clients should set their login details to maintain smooth access (send queries to transition@smartkarma.com).

By Philip Rush

January 10, 2025
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HEW: Happy(ish) New Year

  • Markets began arguably as they will continue in 2025, with little beta and many quirks to source alpha. US payrolls boomed while EA inflation unsurprisingly rose.
  • More releases return next week, with UK inflation our highlight, as low airfares may disappoint many forecasts. US CPI and final EA HICP also matter. It’s still quiet for monetary policy decisions, with Indonesia and Korea the only exceptions.
  • Note: Smartkarma becomes our research portal in January, so clients should set their login details to maintain smooth access (send queries to transition@smartkarma.com).

By Philip Rush

December 20, 2024
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HEW: Hawkishly Easing Into Holidays

  • There was a remarkable lack of surprise over the past week, with several central bank decisions and top-tier data releases matching forecasts. Hawkish cuts, primarily from the Fed, dominated the relatively dovish holds from the BoE, BOJ and Norges bank.
  • Releases dry up like market liquidity for Christmas next week. This publication series will return on 10 January, although clients will get a few other pieces in between.
  • Note: Smartkarma becomes our research portal in January, so set your passwords ready. Should there be any queries, please direct them to transition@smartkarma.com.

By Philip Rush

December 13, 2024
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HEW: Festive Policy Disagreements

  • The seasonal festival of packed macro releases before Christmas has already yielded some stark policy divergence and surprise. The SNB joined the Bank of Canada in cutting by 50bp while Brazil hiked by 100bp. The ECB’s 25bp cut was reassuringly as expected.
  • Pricing for the BoE and Fed has also built firm consensus calls around our view of no change and a 25bp cut, respectively. One of the several other announcements is more likely to shock. Our UK CPI inflation call is relatively high at 2.6% on the data front.

By Philip Rush

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