Archive

September 15, 2023
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HEW: Herding into Policy Meetings

  • The past week featured downside news in UK GDP and employment, but still-strong wage inflation sustains hawkish concerns at the BoE. The ECB added some peer pressure through its rate hike and likely protracted period before rates are cut back.
  • Herding central bankers compete to be heard next week, as six of the G10 announce decisions (Fed, BoE, Riksbank, Norges Bank, SNB, BoJ), plus three others. UK inflation, the final HICP print, and flash PMIs are also highlights on the data front.

By Philip Rush

September 08, 2023
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HEW: In-activism After Holidays

  • The past week has been quiet on the data front again, but central bankers returned to decisions, albeit with a holiday-infused spirit of in-activism. The RBA, BoC and BNM were unchanged, while Chile shrunk its cut magnitude, all as we indicated.
  • Next week goes up a gear with data, including the UK labour market report, on the schedule along with the ECB’s decision. We expect a holding meeting, with no rate change, while holding the door open to doing more. A technical adjustment is possible.

By Philip Rush

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