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February 21, 2025
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HEW: Doves Drown in Hot Data

  • This week, the flurry of hawkish UK data extended into a torrent, with unemployment, wages, inflation, retail sales, and the flash PMI drowning dovish assumptions. Repriced rates don’t reflect the reality in the macro data where reversing hikes may be needed.
  • Final Euro area inflation data and monetary policy decisions from Korea and Thailand are highlights incapable of changing global narratives. Negotiated EA wage data, policy speeches, and Trump’s regular shouting into the void may dominate instead.
  • Note: Smartkarma is now the sole distributor of our research, so clients will only receive all other research from Smartkarma (queries to transition@smartkarma.com).

By Philip Rush

February 14, 2025
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HEW: Hawkish Canaries and Sick Doves

  • Resurgent US inflation and UK GDP growth sicken dovish arguments, even if the turn is exaggerated by residual seasonality in H1. We now see the Fed’s next move as a hike. Uruguay joined Brazil as another hawkish canary by hiking, while BSP didn’t cut.
  • It’s the RBA and RBNZ’s turn next week, where cuts are expected, but they are lagging behind the global policy cycle, not leading it. UK inflation, unemployment and wage data will be the highlights for us, along with FOMC minutes and flash PMIs.
  • Note: Smartkarma is now the sole distributor of our research, so clients will only receive all other research from Smartkarma (queries to transition@smartkarma.com).

By Philip Rush

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