Archive

July 04, 2025
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HEW: Payrolls Waking Up Rates Pricing

  • Dovish rate pricing had been ignoring resilient data until US payrolls delivered a rude awakening. We believe rates remain too dovish relative to reality and equity prices.
  • BoE surveys also revealed resilience in defiance of dovish pricing, while the rise in EA unemployment merely matched ECB forecasts and was heavily reliant on Italy.
  • Next week’s deadline for US tariffs is the main risk event, as not all countries will likely get an extension. Monetary policy decisions come from the RBA, RBNZ, BNM, and BOK.

By Philip Rush

June 27, 2025
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HEW: Incentives To Ignore Macro Data

  • Rates were repriced lower without new data to justify it. Trump incentivises doves with a possible early Fed Chair decision, and the two FOMC outliers revealed themselves.
  • PMIs extended their recovery in the June flash. Mexico and Thailand matched market calls, but the former signalled slower easing and US trade policy risks reduced further.
  • Next week lacks central bank decisions, but US payrolls and EA inflation data are critical to perceptions of the outlook, including our contrarian calls for no more cuts.

By Philip Rush

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