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April 04, 2025
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HEW: Yikes, At Tonto Tariff Hikes

  • Surprisingly severe global tariff hikes smashed market sentiment, dovishly depressing equity prices and rate expectations. Lower EA inflation also leans toward looser policy. Market eagerness to discount ongoing US labour market resilience seems excessive.
  • Those new tariff rates are scheduled to take effect over the week ahead, with any more trading of blows potentially the main macro news. US inflation, UK GDP and the RBNZ are the more conventional highlights, but the data may be discounted as old news.

By Philip Rush

March 28, 2025
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HEW: Braced For Reciprocal Tariffs

  • Strong US and UK PMIs bolstered the former, but the low CPI damped the hawkish effect on the BoE, despite slightly extended seasonal sales being temporarily to blame. The government fudged its Spring Statement to fit its rules, with slippage feeding issuance.
  • Next week’s flash EA inflation may also be low. Impending US tariff announcements are more worrisome. The RBA delivers the most prominent monetary policy announcement, although there are plenty of other speeches and US payrolls data to shift expectations.

By Philip Rush

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