Archive

May 30, 2025
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HEW: Macro Hokey Pokey

  • Markets danced the Hokey Pokey to a drumbeat of lawfare and whimsical Presidential decrees. Tariffs were in, out, out, in, with tired pricing relatively unchanged overall.
  • Underlying GDP trends remain unbroken by the disruptive announcements of recent months, with the superior US productivity performance still internationally enticing.
  • Next week’s ECB rate cut remains one of the least uncertain macro stories. However, guidance should be much more hesitant about cutting again, while leaning that way.

By Philip Rush

May 23, 2025
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HEW: Fiscal Anxiety As Rates Rise

  • Jitters over the sustainability of US fiscal easing knocked equities and the dollar over the past week. Dovish BoE pricing was pared back further towards our contrarian call.
  • UK inflation exceeded our already elevated forecast, while the manufacturing PMIs were broadly resilient again in May. UK retail data were also sensationally strong.
  • Next week is relatively quiet and shortened by a bank holiday. Flash inflation for some euro member states, updated US GDP data, and the RBNZ decision are our highlights.

By Philip Rush

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