Archive

November 08, 2024
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HEW: Rates React To Politics

  • A surprising US election result gave Trump a solid platform to implement his plans and borrow more. Fiscal loosening should trim cutting cycles, but the Fed, BoE and Riksbank all cut. Peru signalled rates near neutral after its 25bp cut, while Brazil hiked by 50bp.
  • Mexico is almost alone in announcing rates next week, although many central bankers have speeches scheduled. Labour market data on Tuesday are the UK’s highlight, while Wednesday’s US inflation data are the most prominent global event in the calendar.

By Philip Rush

November 01, 2024
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HEW: Trumping Blighty

  • High taxes, government spending and borrowing in Blighty (Britain) combined with Euro area inflation to drive hawkish market moves. US pricing failed to keep pace, although disappointing payroll data were only partly to blame.
  • US election results on Wednesday are a toss-up, raising the risk of Trump contesting the outcome and the possibility that other countries exploit the political void. It should not affect the BoE or Fed defying low unemployment to cut rates by 25bp on Thursday.

By Philip Rush

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