Archive

July 01, 2022
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HEW: Flash Rise a Highlight in the Void

  • Over the past week, EA inflation data were the highlight, rising like a hawk. A low core softened the upside news, but that’s little hindrance to the hawkish ECB. Separately, we tackled some fundamental misperceptions about how far policy might go.
  • Next week’s calendar manages the impressive feat of being even emptier than last, with final PMIs a dull focus. We will fill some of the void with our Heteronomics Economics Monthly and more thematic research.

By Philip Rush


June 24, 2022
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HEW: Activity Crashing Hawkish Party

  • Over the past week, activity data broadly disappointed by substantial margins. The Euro area PMI caught the global cold, while the US suffering deepened and UK consumers retrenched, despite not splurging as previously reported.
  • Next week is the relatively quiet month-end, where the flash EA inflation release dominates our calendar. We are a tenth above the current consensus in forecasting a rise to 8.4% y-o-y, driven by energy and Spain punching above its weight.

By Philip Rush


June 17, 2022
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HEW: UK Demand Buried While Rates Rise

  • Over the past week, UK data broadly disappointed, with a shock GDP fall and unemployment rate rise in April. Inflation concerns dominate at the BoE, which hiked by 25bp while three members dissented for 50bps.
  • Our focus next week is the UK inflation data for May, where we are a tenth above the current RPI consensus. Most European countries have beaten expectations again this month, with EA ones unrevised in final prints.

By Philip Rush