Archive

July 08, 2022
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HEW: Boris Bomb Shatters Quiet Week

  • Over the past week, we published our latest monthly, then dug into the easing of hawkish pressures and the European Council’s agenda. News flow focused on the UK government’s spectacular collapse, which ultimately exploded Boris’s reign.
  • Next week will likely contain more political noise as attempts turn to remove Boris before he does more damage. UK GDP data on Wednesday is the key scheduled release for us, but some final inflation prints in the EA are also worth tracking.

By Philip Rush


July 01, 2022
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HEW: Flash Rise a Highlight in the Void

  • Over the past week, EA inflation data were the highlight, rising like a hawk. A low core softened the upside news, but that’s little hindrance to the hawkish ECB. Separately, we tackled some fundamental misperceptions about how far policy might go.
  • Next week’s calendar manages the impressive feat of being even emptier than last, with final PMIs a dull focus. We will fill some of the void with our Heteronomics Economics Monthly and more thematic research.

By Philip Rush


June 24, 2022
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HEW: Activity Crashing Hawkish Party

  • Over the past week, activity data broadly disappointed by substantial margins. The Euro area PMI caught the global cold, while the US suffering deepened and UK consumers retrenched, despite not splurging as previously reported.
  • Next week is the relatively quiet month-end, where the flash EA inflation release dominates our calendar. We are a tenth above the current consensus in forecasting a rise to 8.4% y-o-y, driven by energy and Spain punching above its weight.

By Philip Rush