Archive

July 22, 2022
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HEW: Policy Fudge Poisoning Activity

  • Over the past week, evidence of activity destruction mounted across UK consumption and global PMI surveys, only partly because of painfully high non-core inflation. The ECB also fudged its new transmission tool to hike big before it’s forced to slow.
  • Next week is a return to a relatively quiet calendar, where flash EA inflation for July is the highlight for us (aside from the Fed). Political manoeuvres also seem set to continue in Italy and the UK, although the latter is into a slower burning phase for the summer.

By Philip Rush


July 15, 2022
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HEW: Inflation and ECB Rates to Rise

  • Over the past week, UK GDP data were surprisingly strong but potentially distorted by the bank holiday shifts. Political shenanigans (and the weather) are getting more attention in the UK ahead of the busy week for releases.
  • Next week contains UK inflation and the final EA print, where we are in line on the RPI but a tenth above on the CPI. We see a risk that the HICP rounds higher while expecting the ECB to deliver a 25bps hike as the hawks chose that over relaxing their principles.

By Philip Rush


July 08, 2022
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HEW: Boris Bomb Shatters Quiet Week

  • Over the past week, we published our latest monthly, then dug into the easing of hawkish pressures and the European Council’s agenda. News flow focused on the UK government’s spectacular collapse, which ultimately exploded Boris’s reign.
  • Next week will likely contain more political noise as attempts turn to remove Boris before he does more damage. UK GDP data on Wednesday is the key scheduled release for us, but some final inflation prints in the EA are also worth tracking.

By Philip Rush