Archive

April 04, 2025
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HEW: Yikes, At Tonto Tariff Hikes

  • Surprisingly severe global tariff hikes smashed market sentiment, dovishly depressing equity prices and rate expectations. Lower EA inflation also leans toward looser policy. Market eagerness to discount ongoing US labour market resilience seems excessive.
  • Those new tariff rates are scheduled to take effect over the week ahead, with any more trading of blows potentially the main macro news. US inflation, UK GDP and the RBNZ are the more conventional highlights, but the data may be discounted as old news.

By Philip Rush

March 28, 2025
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HEW: Braced For Reciprocal Tariffs

  • Strong US and UK PMIs bolstered the former, but the low CPI damped the hawkish effect on the BoE, despite slightly extended seasonal sales being temporarily to blame. The government fudged its Spring Statement to fit its rules, with slippage feeding issuance.
  • Next week’s flash EA inflation may also be low. Impending US tariff announcements are more worrisome. The RBA delivers the most prominent monetary policy announcement, although there are plenty of other speeches and US payrolls data to shift expectations.

By Philip Rush

March 21, 2025
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HEW: Hard Data And Deferred Decisions

  • Ongoing resilience in hard relative to soft data included the latest UK labour market report. Policymakers are focussing more on hard strength, reducing the risk decisions are polluted by bad vibes. Easing cycles are turning to and beyond unsurprising ends.
  • Next week’s UK Budget isn’t immune to the underlying uncertainty. Deferring some unlikely spending cuts is more about political convenience, though. UK inflation data for February should be relatively stable. Monday’s Flash PMIs will also attract attention.

By Philip Rush

March 14, 2025
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HEW: Payback In Trade And Pricing

  • Equities are struggling amid volatile trade policies and retaliations squeezing the profit outlook. The hard data remain resilient, albeit with low airfares depressing the US CPI. Exuberance about Europe partly unwound, helpfully after we dropped our bullish view.
  • The Fed and BoE seem set to hold rates unchanged next week as dovish warning signs have yet to crystallise. Two MPC members should dissent for a 25bp cut to avoid admitting a past mistake. Other announcements include the BOJ, SNB, and Riksbank.

By Philip Rush

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