Archive

September 08, 2023
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HEW: In-activism After Holidays

  • The past week has been quiet on the data front again, but central bankers returned to decisions, albeit with a holiday-infused spirit of in-activism. The RBA, BoC and BNM were unchanged, while Chile shrunk its cut magnitude, all as we indicated.
  • Next week goes up a gear with data, including the UK labour market report, on the schedule along with the ECB’s decision. We expect a holding meeting, with no rate change, while holding the door open to doing more. A technical adjustment is possible.

By Philip Rush

September 01, 2023
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HEW: Vacation from News, Not Narrative

  • Surprises have remained relatively stagflationary over the past week, with EA inflation 0.2pp above the consensus (4bps vs. us) and final manufacturing PMIs struggling. Labour market resilience hasn’t yet broken, but US job openings dropped.
  • Next week is busier with the summer holidays ending, including for policymakers who announce rates in Australia, Canada, Chile, and Malaysia. It remains quiet on the data front before what will be an intense fortnight all around.

By Philip Rush

August 25, 2023
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HEW: Stormy PMIs in a Teacup

  • Gloomy flash PMI data dominated the global macro news over the past week, aided by a lack of central bank news. Recessionary risks knocked rate expectations, but the BoE and ECB seek disinflationary corroboration in price and wage inflation first.
  • Next week has even less on the schedule into a summertime month end. Flash EA inflation is the highlight in Europe, with US core PCE and payrolls focal points on the other side of the pond. Central bankers are seemingly all on holiday.

By Philip Rush

August 18, 2023
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HEW: Policy Headaches Persist

  • UK data packed the past week’s calendar and showed more persistent inflationary pressures but signs that activity is suffering. Meanwhile, US resilience discouraged rate cut expectations, reducing curve inversion consistent with our global macro view.
  • Next week is quieter again, with flash PMIs as the data highlight. Bank of Korea and Bank Indonesia announce monetary policy decisions, but both are likely to be no change events. The Jackson Hole Symposium may generate more headlines.

By Philip Rush

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