Archive

August 08, 2025
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HEW: Hawks Overruled

  • The BoE Governor overruled his Chief Economist and Deputy Governor to deliver a rate cut, while Donald Trump appointed a dovish patsy in the hope of achieving the same.
  • Whether poor payrolls presage a flow of data that breaks our resilience narrative is more important to the policy outlook. Europe stayed strong, with a retail rebound.
  • UK unemployment (4.3%), GDP (0.1% q-o-q) and US inflation are the data highlights next week, with the RBA (cut) and the Norges Bank (unchanged) holding the policy ropes.

By Philip Rush

August 01, 2025
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HEW: Atlantic Jobs Divide

  • Depressing revisions to US payroll data clash with the resilience seen in other data, and compare poorly with the bullish revisions to the Euro area’s labour market.
  • Jobs data challenge the Fed’s patient posture, while the Euro area’s sticky inflation and tighter labour markets should encourage it to keep rolling rate cuts later.
  • Thursday’s BoE decision sets unemployment’s rise against inflation persistence, leaving the outcome uncertain, yet it is likely to yield another split vote for a rate cut.

By Philip Rush

July 25, 2025
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HEW: Trade Deals & Fiscal Slippage

  • Market narratives were driven by US trade pacts, critically with Japan, the ECB watching data from a good place, and further evidence of UK fiscal problems.
  • Tariff uncertainty eased slightly, but it is still fierce ahead of the 1 August deadline. PMIs remained resilient, and UK retail sales rebounded into growth again for Q2.
  • Next week brings Fed, BoC and BoJ meetings (broadly on hold), US and euro-area GDP growth for Q2, US payrolls, euro-area unemployment and slower flash HICP data.

By Philip Rush

July 18, 2025
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HEW: Inflation Persists, But Cuts Loom

  • Persistent upside inflation surprises and sticky wage growth are lifting hawkish market narratives, defying central bank and consensus hopes for a quick return to target.
  • UK inflation jumped well above forecast in June, strengthening the hawkish case, while US core inflation shows tariffs adding to excessive underlying price pressures.
  • Next week, attention turns to the ECB decision, July flash PMIs, and UK public finances, as markets weigh central banks’ willingness to ignore resurgent inflation.

By Philip Rush

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