Archive

October 10, 2025
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HEW: Rate Surprises In The US Void

  • Most central bank decisions surprised consensus expectations this week, despite the void over the US situation. Neutral rate views often contributed to the directional news.
  • The Fed is encouraged to ease by the lack of evidence not to, stimulating market values further. The UK government is suffering from another likely downgrade to productivity.
  • Next week’s calendar is thinned by the possible delay of the US CPI data, leaving the EA as the inflationary highlight. The UK gets a potentially hawkish labour market report.

By Philip Rush

October 03, 2025
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HEW: Watching What Didn’t Happen

  • The US government shutdown removes the potential for official statistics to damp dovish concern, raising the likelihood of October’s cut, especially with other weak data.
  • EA unemployment’s rise reflected rounding rather than substance. UK national accounts revealed healthy balance sheets, aside from the government, and bullish lending stats.
  • Next week’s calendar stays thin with US releases suspended and Europe’s cycle focusing on the following week. The RBNZ, BoT, BSP and Peru announce rates next week.

By Philip Rush

September 26, 2025
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HEW: Resilience Reminders Roil Doves

  • Bullish GDP revisions and jobless claims provided further reminders that the economy is much more resilient than market pricing has dovishly assumed, causing a hawkish shift.
  • Nonetheless, the Riksbank surprised with a 25bp rate cut, but projected that as the terminal rate before hikes start reversing the stimulative setting in 2026.
  • Next week’s US payrolls data dominates the calendar, given the potential to break market conviction in an October Fed cut. EA inflation should rise back above the target.

By Philip Rush

September 19, 2025
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HEW: Cautious Cuts Through The West

  • Economic data releases revealed more resilience in labour markets than feared, while inflation remained high. Yet Western central banks broadly cut rates, albeit cautiously.
  • The BoE’s caution left only two dovish dissents to its on-hold decision, while it cut QT by £30bn to £70bn to reduce the likelihood of gilt market indigestion.
  • Next week’s SNB and Riksbank decisions should join the BoE in holding steady, although they have already cut much further. Flash PMIs are the data focus in a thin calendar.

By Philip Rush

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