Archive

October 24, 2025
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HEW: Heavy Hitters Pulling Punches

  • Sentiment stabilised this week as credit issues are realised to be more of a long-term problem than an imminent issue. Indonesia and Korea hawkishly held their policy rates.
  • Inflation undershot final expectations in the UK and US, yet constitutes less excess rather than outright weakness, and merely aligns with slightly earlier forecasts.
  • Next week’s release calendar has some heavy hitters, but pulling their punches. The Fed cut and ECB hold are widely expected, as is a marginal slowing in EA inflation.

By Philip Rush

October 17, 2025
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HEW: Cockroaches Startle Pricing

  • Losses on bad and fraudulent US loans raise the risk that more cockroaches will emerge, nourished by monetary policy stimulating asset prices outside of recessionary regimes.
  • Market rates fell on this, while macro data didn’t offer direction as UK Q3 GDP kept tracking 0.2%, EA inflation was confirmed, and UK labour market data were mixed.
  • Next week’s UK inflation data should reveal a rise, with the CPI reaching 4%. Delayed US CPI data will provide a rare signal more relevant to the Fed’s likely decision to cut.

By Philip Rush

October 10, 2025
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HEW: Rate Surprises In The US Void

  • Most central bank decisions surprised consensus expectations this week, despite the void over the US situation. Neutral rate views often contributed to the directional news.
  • The Fed is encouraged to ease by the lack of evidence not to, stimulating market values further. The UK government is suffering from another likely downgrade to productivity.
  • Next week’s calendar is thinned by the possible delay of the US CPI data, leaving the EA as the inflationary highlight. The UK gets a potentially hawkish labour market report.

By Philip Rush

October 03, 2025
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HEW: Watching What Didn’t Happen

  • The US government shutdown removes the potential for official statistics to damp dovish concern, raising the likelihood of October’s cut, especially with other weak data.
  • EA unemployment’s rise reflected rounding rather than substance. UK national accounts revealed healthy balance sheets, aside from the government, and bullish lending stats.
  • Next week’s calendar stays thin with US releases suspended and Europe’s cycle focusing on the following week. The RBNZ, BoT, BSP and Peru announce rates next week.

By Philip Rush

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