Archive

September 08, 2023
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HEW: In-activism After Holidays

  • The past week has been quiet on the data front again, but central bankers returned to decisions, albeit with a holiday-infused spirit of in-activism. The RBA, BoC and BNM were unchanged, while Chile shrunk its cut magnitude, all as we indicated.
  • Next week goes up a gear with data, including the UK labour market report, on the schedule along with the ECB’s decision. We expect a holding meeting, with no rate change, while holding the door open to doing more. A technical adjustment is possible.

By Philip Rush

September 01, 2023
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HEW: Vacation from News, Not Narrative

  • Surprises have remained relatively stagflationary over the past week, with EA inflation 0.2pp above the consensus (4bps vs. us) and final manufacturing PMIs struggling. Labour market resilience hasn’t yet broken, but US job openings dropped.
  • Next week is busier with the summer holidays ending, including for policymakers who announce rates in Australia, Canada, Chile, and Malaysia. It remains quiet on the data front before what will be an intense fortnight all around.

By Philip Rush

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