Archive

March 28, 2025
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HEW: Braced For Reciprocal Tariffs

  • Strong US and UK PMIs bolstered the former, but the low CPI damped the hawkish effect on the BoE, despite slightly extended seasonal sales being temporarily to blame. The government fudged its Spring Statement to fit its rules, with slippage feeding issuance.
  • Next week’s flash EA inflation may also be low. Impending US tariff announcements are more worrisome. The RBA delivers the most prominent monetary policy announcement, although there are plenty of other speeches and US payrolls data to shift expectations.

By Philip Rush

March 21, 2025
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HEW: Hard Data And Deferred Decisions

  • Ongoing resilience in hard relative to soft data included the latest UK labour market report. Policymakers are focussing more on hard strength, reducing the risk decisions are polluted by bad vibes. Easing cycles are turning to and beyond unsurprising ends.
  • Next week’s UK Budget isn’t immune to the underlying uncertainty. Deferring some unlikely spending cuts is more about political convenience, though. UK inflation data for February should be relatively stable. Monday’s Flash PMIs will also attract attention.

By Philip Rush

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