Archive

May 16, 2025
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HEW: Dovish Arguments Ageing Poorly

  • Equity and rates market prices normalised further as data remains too resilient to prompt cuts, and US trade policy still seems to be reversing its destructive aspects.
  • UK GDP boomed beyond expectations again, albeit amid residual seasonality. US CPI data were soft and stable, as companies appeared to have smoothed the tariff shock.
  • Next week’s UK inflation data could compound the pressure by exceeding the consensus to reach 3.4% on the CPI. The flash PMIs and RBA decision are other timely highlights.

By Philip Rush

May 09, 2025
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HEW: Doves Disappointed By Patience

  • The BoE and Fed decisions disappointed dovish hopes for action by sensibly waiting to see some signs that easing is appropriate. Caution reduces the risk of a policy mistake.
  • Inflation in the US, plus unemployment and GDP in the UK, are the scheduled economic highlights for us next week. The UK data may prove more resilient than feared again.
  • An absence of bad news can allow the good vibes to keep flowing from recent resilient data and trade policy progress, but investors seeking to sleep easy may wish to hedge.

By Philip Rush

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