Archive

July 11, 2025
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HEW: Kicked Can Lands Steady

  • Trump kicked the tariff can a few weeks to 1 August, leaving other policymakers and markets in a wait-and-see mode. Pricing was little changed amid little news elsewhere.
  • We thematically explored the market implications of resilience rolling cuts later, how healthy the US labour market data is, and dug into the UK’s political problems.
  • Next week’s UK labour market and inflation data are critical ahead of an August BoE decision we believe remains finely balanced. US and EA inflation are other highlights.

By Philip Rush

July 04, 2025
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HEW: Payrolls Waking Up Rates Pricing

  • Dovish rate pricing had been ignoring resilient data until US payrolls delivered a rude awakening. We believe rates remain too dovish relative to reality and equity prices.
  • BoE surveys also revealed resilience in defiance of dovish pricing, while the rise in EA unemployment merely matched ECB forecasts and was heavily reliant on Italy.
  • Next week’s deadline for US tariffs is the main risk event, as not all countries will likely get an extension. Monetary policy decisions come from the RBA, RBNZ, BNM, and BOK.

By Philip Rush

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