Archive

June 06, 2025
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HEW: Poorly Positioned Doves

  • The ECB was even more hesitant to signal cuts than we expected, with the level after the unsurprising cut now deemed well-positioned. Cuts will require downside news.
  • Disinflationary surprises across the Euro area in the May flash releases are already embedded in that assessment. Doves are poorly positioned for this reaction function.
  • US inflation data may be the most crucial global release next week, although the signal may not be clear. Statistical issues affect the UK labour market and GDP data.

By Philip Rush

May 30, 2025
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HEW: Macro Hokey Pokey

  • Markets danced the Hokey Pokey to a drumbeat of lawfare and whimsical Presidential decrees. Tariffs were in, out, out, in, with tired pricing relatively unchanged overall.
  • Underlying GDP trends remain unbroken by the disruptive announcements of recent months, with the superior US productivity performance still internationally enticing.
  • Next week’s ECB rate cut remains one of the least uncertain macro stories. However, guidance should be much more hesitant about cutting again, while leaning that way.

By Philip Rush

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