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April 11, 2025
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HEW: Sipping ECB Dove-Juice

  • Volatility in reciprocal and China tariffs disrupted markets again over the past week. Waiting to see the impact in data dampens the relevance of releases, including low US inflation (depressed by a late Easter), and surging UK GDP (residual seasonality).
  • UK unemployment and inflation data risks skew hawkishly next week amid resilient underlying trends and the belated impact of Spring stock landing in clothing store price samples. Market moves also push the ECB towards cutting again on Thursday.

By Philip Rush

April 04, 2025
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HEW: Yikes, At Tonto Tariff Hikes

  • Surprisingly severe global tariff hikes smashed market sentiment, dovishly depressing equity prices and rate expectations. Lower EA inflation also leans toward looser policy. Market eagerness to discount ongoing US labour market resilience seems excessive.
  • Those new tariff rates are scheduled to take effect over the week ahead, with any more trading of blows potentially the main macro news. US inflation, UK GDP and the RBNZ are the more conventional highlights, but the data may be discounted as old news.

By Philip Rush

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