Archive

May 02, 2025
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HEW: Good News From Less News

  • Dovish fears are failing to find support in the economic data or Trump’s declarations. Underlying activity appears to have remained resilient through the initial US tariff shock and the UK stamp duty rise. EA inflation pressure is also awkwardly unbroken.
  • The Fed will hold rates steady next week, without hard evidence to justify cutting. The BoE is also set to maintain its course with another quarterly 25bp rate cut amid sterling strength compounding commodity price falls. Future cuts by both need more evidence.

By Philip Rush

April 25, 2025
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HEW: Put Inside The Trump Collar

  • US policy kept driving volatility over Easter. Sensible responses to market weakness may be matched on the upside with MAGA shocks, creating a Trump Collar to pricing. Yet the global economy is unfazed by the attacks and uncertainty, contrary to the consensus.
  • Next week’s release calendar is heavier with data, including some that provide needed colour on current conditions. US payrolls, the ISMs, and Euro inflation for April are highlights, with Q1 EA and US GDP probably discounted by the market as old news.

By Philip Rush

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