Archive

May 23, 2025
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HEW: Fiscal Anxiety As Rates Rise

  • Jitters over the sustainability of US fiscal easing knocked equities and the dollar over the past week. Dovish BoE pricing was pared back further towards our contrarian call.
  • UK inflation exceeded our already elevated forecast, while the manufacturing PMIs were broadly resilient again in May. UK retail data were also sensationally strong.
  • Next week is relatively quiet and shortened by a bank holiday. Flash inflation for some euro member states, updated US GDP data, and the RBNZ decision are our highlights.

By Philip Rush

May 16, 2025
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HEW: Dovish Arguments Ageing Poorly

  • Equity and rates market prices normalised further as data remains too resilient to prompt cuts, and US trade policy still seems to be reversing its destructive aspects.
  • UK GDP boomed beyond expectations again, albeit amid residual seasonality. US CPI data were soft and stable, as companies appeared to have smoothed the tariff shock.
  • Next week’s UK inflation data could compound the pressure by exceeding the consensus to reach 3.4% on the CPI. The flash PMIs and RBA decision are other timely highlights.

By Philip Rush

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