Archive

September 22, 2023
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HEW: Doves in the Herd

  • Central bank announcements dominated the agenda over the past week, with surprises skewing dovishly. Low inflation split the BoE into staying on hold while the SNB also resisted a hike. High for long was the motto throughout for almost all of them.
  • Next week is much quieter, with rate decisions from Thailand, Mexico, and Colombia. US PCE and EA HICP inflation are the data highlights, where we are a tenth below the current consensus on the latter in forecasting a fall to 4.4%.

By Philip Rush

September 15, 2023
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HEW: Herding into Policy Meetings

  • The past week featured downside news in UK GDP and employment, but still-strong wage inflation sustains hawkish concerns at the BoE. The ECB added some peer pressure through its rate hike and likely protracted period before rates are cut back.
  • Herding central bankers compete to be heard next week, as six of the G10 announce decisions (Fed, BoE, Riksbank, Norges Bank, SNB, BoJ), plus three others. UK inflation, the final HICP print, and flash PMIs are also highlights on the data front.

By Philip Rush

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