Archive

February 18, 2026
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RBNZ Holds, Normalisation Deferred

  • RBNZ held its OCR at 2.25% as expected, with a shallow projection implying first hikes only from late 2026 or early 2027.
  • The baseline keeps policy accommodative through 2026, contingent on spare capacity and core inflation easing towards 2% as projected.
  • Risk balance is two‑sided: faster closing of the output gap could bring hikes forward, while weak demand would keep the OCR on hold all year.
February 06, 2026
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RBI Locks In a Long Pause at 5.25%

  • The RBI holds its repo rate at 5.25% with a neutral stance, in line with consensus expectations, signalling a likely extended pause in the rate cycle.
  • Future rate moves hinge on CPI inflation, the durability of 7% growth and global shocks. The RBI wants a clearer inflation path before cutting.
  • Elevated real rates and patchy transmission mean policy will lean on liquidity tools, with scope for rate action only if the data shift materially.
February 05, 2026
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Banxico’s Cautious Pause at 7%

  • Banxico held the policy rate at 7%, as expected, and signalled a data‑dependent, higher‑for‑longer stance after revising inflation forecasts upward.
  • Convergence to the 3% target is delayed to Q2 2027, with core and services persistence, fiscal shocks and FX volatility key to the timing of any renewed cuts.
  • Weak growth supports future easing, but Fed policy, peso moves and the inflation expectation anchor will determine how soon and how far rates can fall.
February 05, 2026
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ECB Holds in a ‘Good Place’

  • The ECB holds rates at 2%, as expected, signalling a high bar for moves and reinforcing a data‑dependent, meeting‑by‑meeting stance.
  • Inflation is below 2%, but core and wages are still firm, keeping easing and tightening risks balanced, and anchoring a “higher for longer” bias.
  • A stronger euro, global demand shocks or sticky services inflation will be decisive for any future shift away from the current rate plateau.

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