Archive

September 11, 2025
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Peru Nears Neutral as Rates Cut to 4.25%

  • BCRP cut rates by 25bp to 4.25%, approaching neutral policy as August inflation fell to 1.1% YoY, the lowest since 2018, below consensus expectations.
  • The real ex-ante rate is now 2.07%, very close to the 2% neutral estimate, suggesting limited scope for further easing without overstimulating the economy.
  • Global trade tensions create a medium-term downward bias for growth outlook, with a data-dependent approach maintained for future policy adjustments.
September 10, 2025
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Chile: Steady Rates Amid Global Uncertainty

  • Chile's policy rate was held at 4.75%, surprising no consensus forecasts amid stable activity and FX markets.
  • Core inflation is higher than June projections, signalling persistent price pressures on goods and services.
  • Future moves hinge on additional data. Persistent wage-driven inflation may delay any rate cuts.
September 04, 2025
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BNM Holds Rate Amid Trade Headwinds

  • BNM holds its OPR at 2.75% as expected. Its data-dependent stance signals patience amid trade uncertainties & resilient domestic conditions.
  • Benign inflation (1.4% headline, 1.9% core) provides policy flexibility, and a moderate outlook through 2026 supports an accommodative stance.
  • Strong 4.4% H1 growth, driven by robust 7% Q2 domestic demand, leads analysts to expect rates on hold through 2025, with cuts if growth weakens.
August 28, 2025
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BSP Cuts to 5% in "Goldilocks" Zone

  • BSP cut rates by 25bp to 5.0%, meeting consensus expectations and bringing total easing to 150bp since the cycle began one year ago.
  • A further 25bp cut is likely by December, targeting a terminal rate of 4.75% as inflation remains well below the 2-4% target range.
  • US tariff uncertainty weighs on outlook, but the BSP signals a slightly less dovish stance as policy approaches a "Goldilocks zone" sweet spot.

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