Archive

July 04, 2025
2025-07-04 HEW_head.png

HEW: Payrolls Waking Up Rates Pricing

  • Dovish rate pricing had been ignoring resilient data until US payrolls delivered a rude awakening. We believe rates remain too dovish relative to reality and equity prices.
  • BoE surveys also revealed resilience in defiance of dovish pricing, while the rise in EA unemployment merely matched ECB forecasts and was heavily reliant on Italy.
  • Next week’s deadline for US tariffs is the main risk event, as not all countries will likely get an extension. Monetary policy decisions come from the RBA, RBNZ, BNM, and BOK.

By Philip Rush

June 27, 2025
2025-06-27 HEW_head.png

HEW: Incentives To Ignore Macro Data

  • Rates were repriced lower without new data to justify it. Trump incentivises doves with a possible early Fed Chair decision, and the two FOMC outliers revealed themselves.
  • PMIs extended their recovery in the June flash. Mexico and Thailand matched market calls, but the former signalled slower easing and US trade policy risks reduced further.
  • Next week lacks central bank decisions, but US payrolls and EA inflation data are critical to perceptions of the outlook, including our contrarian calls for no more cuts.

By Philip Rush

June 20, 2025
2025-06-20 HEW_head.png

HEW: Playing For Time

  • US diplomacy with Iran has been given two weeks, bringing it close to the reciprocal tariff deferral date. Both may roll later, while central bankers wait to see the impact.
  • Unsurprising UK and EA inflation data offered little direction, nor did the BoE or Fed. Brazil and Norway delivered opposite surprises outside a flood of cautious statements.
  • Next week is much quieter for data and decisions (TH and MX). The flash PMIs are the main global highlight, although some HICP and PCE data are notable on Friday.

By Philip Rush

June 13, 2025
2025-06-13 HEW_head.png

HEW: Geopolitics Blow Hot And Warm

  • Israel’s attack on Iran squeezes supply in an unwelcome shock that is harder for central bankers to look through post-pandemic. Warming US-China relations had less impact.
  • Avoidance measures have helped mitigate the tariff shock so far, with US CPI holding steady. The importance of recent disappointing UK demand data is easy to overstate.
  • The BoE is set to hold rates, probably with two dovish dissents and no commitment to August. UK inflation should slow with airfares normalising and a vehicle tax correction.

By Philip Rush

By country