September 30, 2022
HEW: UK Re-finding Its Feet
- Over the past week, the UK endured international humiliation as investors fled and markets broke. BoE intervention helped restore confidence and value while neither negating all the damage nor preventing future risks from foreign policy.
- Next week’s calendar contains the flood of final PMIs and little else. Hopefully, things will be calmer on the policy and market side as stabilisation turns to fuller recovery.
By Philip Rush
September 23, 2022
HEW: EA HICP After UK Policy Mix
- Over the past week, the BoE matched economist forecasts for a 50bp rate hike. Markets are pricing more hawkish risks, which were only encouraged by widespread fiscal stimulus from a government reversing its redistributive tax hikes.
- Next week’s calendar is relatively thin, with EA inflation the data highlight. There is a lull on the policy side after Sunday’s Italian election and the flurry of recent events.
By Philip Rush
September 16, 2022
HEW: Falling into the BoE’s Sep-22 hike
- Over the past week, UK GDP, retail sales and inflation all undershot expectations. A lower unemployment rate may offset some dovish news, despite it being more like a revision than a fundamental dynamic. EA inflation was even more resilient than feared.
- Next week’s calendar contains the postponed BoE decision, where we expect another 50bps rate hike. A UK fiscal event (“akin to a budget”) seems set to tuck into the gap between that and parliamentary recess but won’t carry proper projections.
By Philip Rush
