September 17, 2021

HEW: central banks following inflation

  • Over the past week, UK inflation surprised to the upside and energy price concerns mounted, squeezing household budgets when retail sales are already falling. Inflation expectations are starting to stretch, but UK labour market data exaggerate growth.
  • Next week is full of central bank decisions. The Norges Bank is set to hike while the Riksbank stays on hold, and we expect the BoE MPC’s new members to support the current purchase schedule. Flash PMIs and confidence surveys will also be released.
  • In Heteronomics news, we are thrilled to finish migrating our inflation models to our new AWS-sponsored infrastructure. Forecasts aren’t changed, but the possibilities grow.

September 10, 2021

HEW: exploding gas and inflation preview

  • Over the past week, the rapid phase of the UK’s recovery died in the official data; we reiterated our gloomy view around winter covid restrictions, and the ECB recalibrated a PEPP taper. Norway’s inflation also surged ahead of the election and a likely rate hike.
  • Next week, after that election, the UK’s labour market, inflation and retail sales data will be released, along with the final EA HICP and Sweden’s CPI for August. We are rounding below the current consensus on the UK CPI but rounding in line on the RPI.

September 03, 2021

HEW: slower growth and the ECB

  • Over the past week, EA inflation printed surprisingly strongly in the August flash, and surveys broadly softened from their highs across the PMIs and consumer confidence.
  • Next week, UK GDP data are also likely to reveal slower activity growth, where we are in line with the current consensus at 0.5% m-o-m. We also await the ECB’s policy decision on Thursday, which we expect to defer tapering until December.
  • In Heteronomics news, we have restructured this weekly to reduce repetition and allow a more comprehensive exploration of relevant developments alongside an expanded data tracking calendar and heatmaps of inflation pressures (inside the PDF).